More hurricane notes

[redbird]

Dr. Jeff Masters, whose blog doesn't seem to have a "link to this specific entry" setup, is discussing possible causes of the recent increase in late-season Atlantic tropical storms. He's got some nice figures and tables, pointing out that "This increase in late-season tropical cyclone activity was not observed during the previous warm phase of theAtlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)"--so it's probably not part of that natural cycle--and also that there's been no similar increase in late-season storms in the North Pacific, so if this is global warming, it's not a straightforward cause and effect. So, we continue to wonder and collect more data.

In the short term, "The chances of a tropical storm forming this week are probably around 20%." That's from an entry posted today, 10 January. It's not much comfort that, should the wind shear fail us and this extratropical low organize, it will be a 2006 storm named Alberto, not a 2005 Eta.

Here in New York City, we're having relatively mild, clear weather--the sort that might be called a January thaw were there snow and ice on the ground to be thawed. No connection, except in the sense that it's the same planet, and in fact the same hemisphere of that planet, and we may all be affected by the same butterflies, or Saharan dust storms, or sunspots.